The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). Hall of Very Good. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? He has put together a solid career, posting a 193-114 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.208 WHiP over his 2538.2 innings . That includes 2020, a season shortened by the pandemic. For now, all eyes are on Flaherty and Wainwright. Is Adam Wainwright in the Hall of Fame? . Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. The pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, in which Wainwright went 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 10 starts, amounted to a fourth lost season for the right-hander, who missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery and made just seven appearances (four starts) due to a torn Achilles in 2015 before he was limited to eight starts by right elbow inflammation in 2018. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app. This is a veteran, and he knows what he needs to do. Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. Here's how WBC offenses stack up with MLB's best, Scherzer tries to test pitch clock limits, gets balk, Jays 'playing it safe' after Guerrero tweaks knee, PitchCom-tipping: Loud device leaks Twins calls, Eflin's first start after $40M deal impresses Rays, Rangers' Leclerc to miss WBC with neck injury, Rockies' Rodgers may need surgery, '23 at risk, Rojas to withdraw from WBC, stay with Dodgers. The contact rate against him on pitches in the strike zone last season 91 percent was the highest against him during his 17-season MLB career. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. For a five-year span from 2007-2011, CC Sabathia was regarded as one of the elite pitchers in the game, and he took three different teams to the postseason, winning a ring with the 2009 Yankees. But theres no alarm. Astros @ Cardinals. He went 119-66 with a 2.96 ERA from 2007-15, a span in which only Kershaw had a lower ERA among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5). So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. On Saturday, June 11, 25,000 fans, ages 16 and older, will take home one of their replica . The Cardinals are calm. The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. Aroldis Chapman (18.5 WAR | 19.9 WPA | 12.0 WPA/LI | 16.8 R-JAWS, +0.6 R-JAWS). 2000-2023 Rogers Media. Strikeouts are booming like never before. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. Arizona Diamondbacks. Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. He produced the worst set of metrics in a full season in his career. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. Adam Wainwrights hybrid JAWS of 41.6 is a fair amount behind that of Dwight Gooden, and closing a 6.4 point gap is going to be a tall order. In his final inning, Wainwright didnt touch higher than 85 mph. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. The two were teammates from 2005-07, and Rolen was out at third base when Wainwright recorded the final out of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. A Hall of Fame-bound pitcher is slated to take the mound in the top of the first inning of tonights NL wild card game. Adam Wainwright will return for his 19th season with the. Twenty-eight are enshrined in Cooperstown everyone except Wainwright and his fellow active hurlers Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the latter trio of whom are expected to glide in Cooperstown, as well as Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown and Vida Blue. Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. 2020 has given us many poor and distasteful things, but it's giving me a glimpse into the future for some wild reason. But if it wasn't for . Because he didnt debut until about five weeks before his 26th birthday, hes short in the two traditional stat categories, wins (77) and strikeouts (1,505), that tend to matter to voters, but as Ive argued, particularly if he can nab a third Cy Young, his will be something of a Koufaxian candidacy, where his career totals will matter less than the peak dominance. Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? How many times have we heard a version of this spin when a St. Louis pitcher has some discomfort or just needs a little time to build himself up in spring training? . According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. Your login session has expired. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburgh's Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Hell need more to get his name in the HOF conversation, namely multiple Cy Young award victories and a pivotal role in a Boston World Series championship. This isnt your fathers Hall of Fame. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Flipboard (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. 230-143, 3.70 ERA, 2,788 strikeouts, 117 adjusted ERA. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. What injury? All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. But its just not going to happen anymore the way pitchers are used now and the way free agency is and (how) careers go. Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). 100-70, 2.99 ERA, 1,409 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Privacy Policy Hes made two starts this spring, covering five total innings. This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day, The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals and the next generational passage St. Louis Bullpen. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. Its not like hes been injury-prone; Price has led the league in games started three times and innings pitched twice. How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in your eyes? St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) sits in the dugout during the second inning of a baseball game between the Cardinals and the Pirates on Thursday, April, 7, 2022, at. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. No harm. Your email address will not be published. Wainwright has certainly had a long and successful career, but has it been enough to warrant enshirement in the Hall of Fame? I found By either that mark or traditional reliever JAWS, the 33-year-old Kimbrel is the biggest gainer this year. He, of course, can retract this, but as he is now in his 40s, Im inclined to believe hes serious. by Retrosheet. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C. Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis. He had a 4.99 ERA in his last 11 starts in 2022 including a 7.22 ERA in his final six starts. Ive lost track. Ive covered the Mets for a variety of outlets since 1997. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburghs Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. As his 136 OPS+ and 26 homers attest, he can still rake even at age 40, but with 443 career dingers, hes two seasons away from reaching 500 (42% odds, via ZiPS). 1:09 | September 14, 2022 St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you. As if on schedule, we have our first spring-training round of Is Anything Wrong? with the pitcher. Wainwright is one of 39 pitchers to record at least 180 wins, 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.40 or lower while making at least 350 starts and throwing at least 2,300 innings. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Madison Bumgarner is still just 27 years old, but hes already etched his name into baseball lore as one of the greatest big-game pitchers of all-time. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. While Pujols and Molina are guaranteed to enter the Hall of Fame, Wainwright's case is a tricky one to say the least. At 41-years-old, Adam Wainwright's statistics suggest no signs of slowing down. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. Guerrero had an RBI single during the first inning in his lone at-bat. Injury? It goes something like this . Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are back together, and they will start Opening Day together for the first time since 2009 on Thursday. Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. Theyll defer. It happens a lot. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. . And I finally reached the point where I just ignored the spin and started to interpret the lack of candor as a possible warning sign. A couple of guys are sore but its OK, everything is fine, nothing to worry about, dont know why the media is making a fuss over this, were just being careful, just holding the pitcher back by a day to be on the safe side, hes looking great, hes getting his work in, theres no need to push it. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. 2020 has given us many. 132-72, 3.34 ERA, 2,005 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. Flaherty is calm. Pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 4.45 FIP, hes produced a respectable 2.2 WAR, though hes still 0.6 points below the JAWS standard. Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. Both legends are heading off into the sunset, their final stop before they end up in Cooperstown in just a few short years. Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. Just to be clear, its not an injury deal; its about him not syncing his body up correctly, and he didnt feel like he was getting the leg drive he typically gets, Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said. Maybe he has it in him to stick around for another 20 wins to get to 200, but he might not even crack the top 100 in JAWS while doing so. Next, select your favourite teams and leagues and well show you their latest news and scores in the My Favourites section of the home page. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. . He's a hell of a pitcher and even better human being. Still, Hernandez has quite a resume over the last decade hes been named to six All-Star teams, won 156 games for a perennially-losing franchise that hasnt sniffed the postseason, and hes won a Cy Young award to go with multiple ERA titles. Adam Wainwright never won a Cy Young Award. Well have to wait and see. His sinker averaged 84.9 mph, a 3.7 percent decrease from 2022. Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. Of course, Wainwright and the Cardinals gave it the nothing to see here treatment. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. He missed large chunks of his playing career due to injuries, and while this has not always been a deal-breaker for Cooperstown, Wainwrights perfectly fine peak was hardly that of go-to example Sandy Koufax. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA (an ERA+ of 90, or 10 percent below league average) from 2016 through 2019. Were just giving him a little extra time in between appearances to rebound from his first time out. This adds up to a solid career, and one that would be worthy of the Hall of Very Good, but not the Hall of Fame. He had one brother, Trey, who was seven years his senior. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. Terms of Service. Listen to the Seeing Red podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. The oldest and wisest twin. Wainwright, 40, who has played for the Cardinals since reaching the majors in 2005, is a three-time All-Star and twice led the National League in wins (2009 and 2013). He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. Verlanders resume is impressive; hes led the league in strikeouts four times, wins twice, won a pitching triple crown, and thrown two no-hitters. Sorry we could not verify that email address. An error has occurred while trying to update your details. Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? But even if we throw 2020 out, Flaherty averaged only 57 innings of work over the last two years. I like that its a round number, but I assure you that this is merely a coincidence. replacement behavior for ripping clothes,